ChallengerHardCharlottesville · 1/16-finals2026-11-03 22:00

Alexis Galarneau v Daniel Milavsky

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

D. Milavsky to win1.91

Worth backing at 1.75 or bigger · our chance 57% · market 50/50, us 43/57

D. Milavsky is 5-5 over the last ten and 36-23 on hard this season. A. Galarneau is 3-7 over the last ten and 22-20 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Galarneau 2-0.

The pick is D. Milavsky to win. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.75 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

A. Galarneau		D. Milavsky
184	Ranking	315
3-7	Last 10	5-5
LLLLW	Last 5	WWLWL
-2.4	V the odds	-0.5
37-29	Season	43-26
22-20	Hard 2026	36-23
0	Last 7 days	3
8d	Days rest	1d
0	Wins here	2
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 2-0

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

A. GalarneauFAV1.9150%

D. Milavsky1.9150%

Market says50% Galarneau

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

A. GalarneauLLLLW

D. MilavskyWWLWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

A. Galarneau2

D. Milavsky0

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-07-10	Newport	A. GalarneauvD. Milavsky	6-3 6-2
2026-02-13	Baton Rouge (Usa), Hard (Indoor)	A. GalarneauvD. Milavsky	6-4 6-4

This season & this event

A. Galarneau

D. Milavsky

37-29

22-20

Did not play

Lost SF to N. Basavareddy

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

43-26

36-23

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

Daniel Milavsky

USA

184

Canada

37–28

26–21

3–2

8–5

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

315

USA

39–24

34–21

1–2

4–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

A. Galarneau — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-26	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	M. Rottgering	2.53	62%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 GalarneauRottgeringPoints won45%55%Serve points won52%63%Return points won37%48%Games held5 of 107 of 9Break points saved2 of 72 of 4Aces53Double faults85
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	R. Safiullin	5.40	82%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 0-6 GalarneauSafiullinPoints won36%64%Serve points won38%65%Return points won35%62%Games held2 of 77 of 8Break points saved4 of 91 of 2Aces01Double faults23
2026-09-30	Jingshan	Hard	L. Harris	3.56	74%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 GalarneauHarrisPoints won40%60%Serve points won51%74%Return points won26%49%Games held4 of 97 of 8Break points saved2 of 72 of 3Aces25Double faults31
2026-09-23	Chengdu	Hard	L. Harris	3.57	73%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 5-7 GalarneauHarrisPoints won41%59%Serve points won59%87%Return points won13%41%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces318Double faults02
2026-09-22	Chengdu	Hard	E. Ymer	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-6 GalarneauYmerPoints won52%48%Serve points won66%60%Return points won40%34%Games held11 of 1210 of 12Break points saved6 of 76 of 8Aces319Double faults53
2026-09-15	Guangzhou 2	Hard	F. Sun	1.41	69%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-3 5-7 GalarneauSunPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held13 of 1713 of 16Break points saved3 of 72 of 5Aces196Double faults22
2026-09-11	Shanghai	Hard	P. Kotov	1.67	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 1-6 1-6 GalarneauKotovPoints won42%58%Serve points won55%73%Return points won27%45%Games held7 of 1210 of 11Break points saved6 of 114 of 5Aces39Double faults11
2026-09-09	Shanghai	Hard	L. Xiao	1.04	93%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 GalarneauXiaoPoints won58%42%Serve points won65%50%Return points won50%35%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved2 of 43 of 7Aces12Double faults00
2026-09-07	Shanghai	Hard	S. Pankin	1.23	79%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 GalarneauPankinPoints won53%47%Serve points won76%69%Return points won31%24%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved2 of 26 of 7Aces39Double faults11
2026-08-26	US Open	Hard	D. Svrcina	2.60	63%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 GalarneauSvrcinaPoints won45%55%Serve points won45%55%Return points won45%55%Games held4 of 106 of 10Break points saved8 of 147 of 11Aces14Double faults26

D. Milavsky — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Charlottesville	Hard	S. Mitsui	1.48	64%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 MilavskyMitsuiPoints won52%48%Serve points won58%52%Return points won48%42%Games held8 of 128 of 12Break points saved6 of 109 of 13Aces42Double faults23
2026-11-01	Charlottesville	Hard	J. Charlton	1.06	89%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 MilavskyCharltonPoints won52%48%Serve points won60%58%Return points won42%40%Games held8 of 107 of 11Break points saved9 of 112 of 6Aces75Double faults42
2026-10-28	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	J.J. Wolf	2.94	67%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-7 MilavskyWolfPoints won48%52%Serve points won59%64%Return points won36%41%Games held10 of 1210 of 12Break points saved5 of 71 of 3Aces106Double faults13
2026-10-26	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	H. Wendelken	1.94	50%	WON
Games in each set6-4 4-6 6-3 MilavskyWendelkenPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%62%Return points won38%32%Games held14 of 1512 of 14Break points saved8 of 910 of 12Aces134Double faults36
2026-10-21	Fort Worth (Usa)	Hard	Dar. Blanch	2.81	66%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 4-6 MilavskyBlanchPoints won43%57%Serve points won57%72%Return points won28%43%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved3 of 62 of 2Aces56Double faults34
2026-10-19	Fort Worth (Usa)	Hard	G. Nanda	1.17	79%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MilavskyNandaPoints won57%43%Serve points won76%54%Return points won46%24%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 112 of 15Aces32Double faults03
2026-09-30	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	Dar. Blanch	2.66	65%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-1 3-6 MilavskyBlanchPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%57%Return points won43%38%Games held9 of 1210 of 13Break points saved4 of 711 of 14Aces614Double faults34
2026-09-28	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	B. Bicknell	1.37	70%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 MilavskyBicknellPoints won56%44%Serve points won69%59%Return points won41%31%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 37 of 10Aces26Double faults74
2026-09-22	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	T. Legout	2.45	62%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 7-6 2-6 MilavskyLegoutPoints won49%51%Serve points won57%60%Return points won40%43%Games held10 of 1613 of 16Break points saved13 of 199 of 12Aces92Double faults55
2026-09-14	Tiburon	Hard	F. A. Gomez	1.67	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 2-6 MilavskyGomezPoints won48%52%Serve points won61%66%Return points won34%39%Games held12 of 1513 of 15Break points saved3 of 65 of 7Aces77Double faults68

Common questions

Who is favourite, Alexis Galarneau or Daniel Milavsky?

Alexis Galarneau is favourite at 1.91, which is a 50% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Alexis Galarneau vs Daniel Milavsky?

Alexis Galarneau is 1.91 and Daniel Milavsky is 1.91, the prices we recorded for the Charlottesville match.

What is the head-to-head between Alexis Galarneau and Daniel Milavsky?

They have met 2 times and Alexis Galarneau leads 2-0.

Who will win Alexis Galarneau vs Daniel Milavsky?

Our model makes it Daniel Milavsky to win at 1.91 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Kozlov v Martin Boulais v Wolf Mayo v Nesterov Fenty v Blanch Trotter v Zheng