ChallengerClayCosta do Sauipe2026-11-03 19:00

Filip Misolic v Juan Pablo Varillas

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

F. Misolic to win1.60

Price too short today - wait for 1.67 or bigger · our chance 60% · market 60/40, us 60/40

F. Misolic is 7-3 over the last ten and 10-7 on clay this season. J. P. Varillas is 5-5 over the last ten and 27-22 on clay this season. The head to head is F. Misolic 1-0.

The pick is F. Misolic to win. We make it a 60% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.67 or bigger. At 1.60 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

F. Misolic		J. P. Varillas
468	Ranking	196
7-3	Last 10	5-5
WWLWL	Last 5	LLWLL
-0.2	V the odds	-0.7
11-13	Season	35-26
10-7	Clay 2026	27-22
2	Last 7 days	0
1d	Days rest	8d
2	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 1-0

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

F. MisolicFAV1.6060%

J. P. Varillas2.4340%

Market says60% Misolic

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

F. MisolicWWLWL

J. P. VarillasLLWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

F. Misolic1

J. P. Varillas0

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2023-10-21	ATP Vienna	F. MisolicvJ. P. Varillas	6-3 6-2

This season & this event

F. Misolic

J. P. Varillas

11-13

10-7

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

35-26

27-22

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Filip Misolic

Austria

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

468

Austria

3–10

1–6

2–4

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

196

Peru

32–22

0–1

30–20

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

F. Misolic — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	M. Alves		1.37	70%	WON
Games in each set6-1 7-6 MisolicAlvesPoints won59%41%Serve points won75%57%Return points won43%25%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved1 of 12 of 4Aces85Double faults53
2026-11-01	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	M. Zormann Da Silva	RET	—	—	WON
Games in each set3-2 MisolicSilvaPoints won62%38%Serve points won92%73%Return points won27%8%Games held3 of 32 of 2Aces10Double faults00
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	A. Hernandez		1.17	81%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 MisolicHernandezPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%73%Return points won27%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved7 of 103 of 4Aces93Double faults21
2026-10-25	Guayaquil	Clay	M. Baquero		1.02	90%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-1 MisolicBaqueroPoints won68%32%Serve points won82%42%Return points won58%18%Games held7 of 71 of 6Break points saved0 of 06 of 11Aces21Double faults22
2026-10-23	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	M. Ribecai		1.74	56%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 MisolicRibecaiPoints won37%63%Serve points won35%61%Return points won39%65%Games held2 of 86 of 7Break points saved1 of 76 of 7Aces10Double faults02
2026-10-21	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	I. Almazan Valiente		1.40	69%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 6-3 MisolicValientePoints won51%49%Serve points won51%49%Return points won51%49%Games held8 of 146 of 14Break points saved11 of 1717 of 25Aces10Double faults65
2026-10-20	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	F. Gill		1.93	50%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-1 MisolicGillPoints won56%44%Serve points won71%58%Return points won42%29%Games held9 of 97 of 10Break points saved3 of 38 of 11Aces71Double faults05
2026-10-19	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	D. Siniakov		1.33	72%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 MisolicSiniakovPoints won60%40%Serve points won69%48%Return points won52%31%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved5 of 68 of 13Aces71Double faults33
2026-10-18	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	D. Recek		1.27	75%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 MisolicRecekPoints won64%36%Serve points won74%44%Return points won56%26%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved3 of 45 of 10Aces43Double faults00
2026-10-05	Braga	Clay	P. Schoen		1.53	62%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 MisolicSchoenPoints won39%61%Serve points won44%67%Return points won33%56%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved11 of 160 of 0Aces02Double faults41

J. P. Varillas — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	R. Pacheco Mendez	1.88	51%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 VarillasMendezPoints won39%61%Serve points won55%80%Return points won20%45%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved5 of 80 of 0Aces25Double faults31
2026-10-21	Cali	Clay	G. Heide	2.99	68%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 VarillasHeidePoints won45%55%Serve points won69%74%Return points won26%31%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved0 of 23 of 3Aces511Double faults24
2026-10-19	Cali	Clay	D. E. Galan	1.91	50%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 VarillasGalanPoints won59%41%Serve points won74%55%Return points won45%26%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved1 of 22 of 6Aces26Double faults02
2026-10-05	Antofagasta	Clay	F. Meligeni Alves	1.80	53%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 VarillasAlvesPoints won41%59%Serve points won50%69%Return points won31%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved2 of 63 of 3Aces15Double faults02
2026-09-25	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	J. Aguilar Cardozo	2.33	59%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 VarillasCardozoPoints won44%56%Serve points won50%64%Return points won36%50%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved6 of 102 of 3Aces10Double faults12
2026-09-23	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	M. A. Dellien Velasco	1.18	78%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-5 6-4 VarillasVelascoPoints won52%48%Serve points won60%56%Return points won44%40%Games held11 of 1610 of 16Break points saved8 of 134 of 10Aces53Double faults05
2026-09-22	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	T. Farjat	—	—	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-2 7-6 VarillasFarjatPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%57%Return points won43%30%Games held10 of 1410 of 15Break points saved2 of 64 of 9Aces412Double faults02
2026-09-20	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	H. J. Escurra Isnardi	1.05	90%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 VarillasIsnardiPoints won56%44%Serve points won76%63%Return points won37%24%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved3 of 31 of 4Aces16Double faults11
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	D. Vallejo	3.00	69%	WON
Games in each set5-7 7-6 6-3 VarillasVallejoPoints won52%48%Serve points won69%65%Return points won35%31%Games held14 of 1713 of 16Break points saved5 of 86 of 9Aces103Double faults11
2026-09-11	Genova	Clay	T. Seyboth Wild	2.52	61%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-7 VarillasWildPoints won44%56%Serve points won67%75%Return points won25%33%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved2 of 53 of 4Aces612Double faults01

Common questions

Who is favourite, Filip Misolic or Juan Pablo Varillas?

Filip Misolic is favourite at 1.60, which is a 60% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Filip Misolic vs Juan Pablo Varillas?

Filip Misolic is 1.60 and Juan Pablo Varillas is 2.43, the prices we recorded for the Costa do Sauipe match.

What is the head-to-head between Filip Misolic and Juan Pablo Varillas?

They have met 1 time and Filip Misolic leads 1-0.

Who will win Filip Misolic vs Juan Pablo Varillas?

Our model makes it Filip Misolic to win at 1.60 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

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