ChallengerTaranto (Italy)2026-11-02 10:00

Florent Bax v Gianluca Cadenasso

Match preview, prediction and odds

Set 2Serving: F. BaxChecked out?Being run overJust broken

Player	Set 1	Set 2	Pts	Pre	Live
F. BaxRET x1 in 90d	5	1	15	2.42	▲101.00
G. CadenassoRET x1 in 90d	7	5	0	1.59	▼1.00

MomentumHold 78% ▼6

1/6

5/6

F. Bax is expected to hold 78% — 6 points below their own baseline in this match. (checked out?, being run over, just broken, must hold) Live prices refresh every 20 seconds.

Our pick

Solid

G. Cadenasso to win1.57

Worth backing at 1.53 or bigger · our chance 66% · market 39/61, us 34/66

G. Cadenasso is 7-3 over the last ten. F. Bax is 7-3 over the last ten.

The pick is G. Cadenasso to win. We make it a 66% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.53 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

F. Bax		G. Cadenasso
254	Ranking	183
7-3	Last 10	7-3
LWWLW	Last 5	LWWWW
-1.6	V the odds	+0.4
48-29	Season	23-19
-	Surface	-
0	Last 7 days	0
10d	Days rest	14d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

F. Bax2.4240%

G. CadenassoFAV1.5960%

Market says60% Cadenasso

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

F. BaxLWWLW

G. CadenassoLWWWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

F. Bax

G. Cadenasso

48-29

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on surface

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

23-19

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Florent Bax

France

Gianluca Cadenasso

Italy

254

France

20–11

12–7

8–4

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

183

Italy

23–18

—

23–17

0–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

F. Bax — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-23	M25 Luanda 2	Hard	J. Loge	1.81	53%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 5-7 BaxLogePoints won45%55%Serve points won53%64%Return points won36%47%Games held7 of 129 of 12Break points saved3 of 85 of 8
2026-10-22	M25 Luanda 2	Hard	P. Aggarwal	1.03	95%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-3 BaxAggarwalPoints won59%41%Serve points won63%46%Return points won54%37%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved1 of 21 of 6
2026-10-20	M25 Luanda 2	Hard	M. Vix	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-0 BaxVixPoints won81%19%Serve points won83%20%Return points won80%17%Games held6 of 60 of 6Break points saved0 of 01 of 7
2026-10-17	M25 Luanda	Hard	J. Loge	1.68	57%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 6-7 1-6 BaxLogePoints won48%52%Serve points won59%63%Return points won37%41%Games held10 of 1513 of 17Break points saved5 of 108 of 12
2026-10-16	M25 Luanda	Hard	A. Gatoto	1.03	94%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-2 BaxGatotoPoints won67%33%Serve points won77%45%Return points won55%23%Games held8 of 83 of 8Break points saved1 of 11 of 5
2026-10-15	M25 Luanda	Hard	R. Serazhetdinov	1.02	96%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-0 BaxSerazhetdinovPoints won60%40%Serve points won71%50%Return points won50%29%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved1 of 12 of 6
2026-10-14	M25 Luanda	Hard	A. Bajurko	1.01	97%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 BaxBajurkoPoints won61%39%Serve points won77%54%Return points won46%23%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved0 of 00 of 3
2026-10-09	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	D. Javia	1.22	78%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-7 BaxJaviaPoints won51%49%Serve points won69%65%Return points won35%31%Games held13 of 1613 of 15Break points saved3 of 53 of 5
2026-10-08	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	C. Ishimwe	1.01	90%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-1 BaxIshimwePoints won75%25%Serve points won83%32%Return points won68%17%Games held6 of 61 of 7Break points saved2 of 21 of 7
2026-10-07	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	A. Bangargi	1.01	97%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-0 BaxBangargiPoints won63%37%Serve points won68%41%Return points won59%32%Games held7 of 82 of 7Break points saved3 of 42 of 7

G. Cadenasso — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	S. Kopp		1.49	65%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 CadenassoKoppPoints won44%56%Serve points won50%61%Return points won39%50%Games held4 of 97 of 10Break points saved8 of 136 of 9Aces10Double faults13
2026-10-18	Catania (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	R. M. Papoe		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-4 CadenassoPapoePoints won50%50%Serve points won61%62%Return points won38%39%Games held11 of 1411 of 15Break points saved9 of 125 of 9Aces01Double faults60
2026-10-17	Catania (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	M. Giunta		1.72	56%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-3 CadenassoGiuntaPoints won57%43%Serve points won65%52%Return points won48%35%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved2 of 31 of 5Aces33Double faults11
2026-10-16	Catania (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	M. Moeller		2.04	53%	WON
Games in each set7-5 4-6 7-6 CadenassoMoellerPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held13 of 1713 of 17Break points saved5 of 910 of 14Aces22Double faults27
2026-10-15	Catania (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	S. Gulin		1.57	61%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-4 CadenassoGulinPoints won55%45%Serve points won62%52%Return points won48%38%Games held8 of 116 of 11Break points saved3 of 64 of 9Aces10Double faults33
2026-10-13	Catania (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	K. Wehnelt		1.36	70%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-4 CadenassoWehneltPoints won51%49%Serve points won65%64%Return points won36%35%Games held14 of 1611 of 15Break points saved0 of 23 of 7Aces26Double faults58
2026-10-07	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	M. Giunta		1.54	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 5-7 CadenassoGiuntaPoints won48%52%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved1 of 45 of 7Aces75Double faults41
2026-10-06	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	F. Moroni		1.29	74%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-4 6-3 CadenassoMoroniPoints won53%47%Serve points won59%53%Return points won47%41%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved6 of 1010 of 15Aces51Double faults51
2026-10-02	Bari (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	V. Sachko	RET	2.29	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 2-6 0-3 CadenassoSachkoPoints won46%54%Serve points won55%64%Return points won36%45%Games held7 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 67 of 8Aces13Double faults26
2026-09-30	Bari (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	L. Angelini		1.19	80%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-0 CadenassoAngeliniPoints won57%43%Serve points won66%51%Return points won49%34%Games held11 of 147 of 13Break points saved7 of 104 of 10Aces20Double faults24

Common questions

Who is favourite, Florent Bax or Gianluca Cadenasso?

Gianluca Cadenasso is favourite at 1.59, which is a 60% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Florent Bax vs Gianluca Cadenasso?

Florent Bax is 2.42 and Gianluca Cadenasso is 1.59, the prices we recorded for the Taranto (Italy) match.

Who will win Florent Bax vs Gianluca Cadenasso?

Our model makes it Gianluca Cadenasso to win at 1.57 (Solid confidence).

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