ChallengerHard (Indoor)Taipei2026-11-03 03:00

Keegan Smith v Jake Delaney

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanLOST

K. Smith to win1.31

Price too short today - wait for 1.37 or bigger · our chance 73% · market 74/26, us 73/27

K. Smith is 5-5 over the last ten and 35-23 on hard this season. Ja. Delaney is 6-4 over the last ten and 51-29 on hard this season. Ja. Delaney has played 4 matches in seven days.

The pick is K. Smith to win. We make it a 73% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.37 or bigger. At 1.31 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

K. Smith		Ja. Delaney
196	Ranking	357
5-5	Last 10	6-4
LLWWL	Last 5	WLWWL
+0.2	V the odds	+0.3
43-30	Season	55-31
35-23	Hard 2026	51-29
1	Last 7 days	4
7d	Days rest	2d
0	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

K. SmithFAV1.3174%

Ja. Delaney3.7126%

Market says74% Smith

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

K. SmithLLLWW

Ja. DelaneyWWLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

K. Smith

Ja. Delaney

43-31

35-24

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

56-31

52-29

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Keegan Smith

USA

Jake Delaney

Australia

196

USA

41–28

33–22

4–2

4–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

357

Australia

52–29

48–26

4–3

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

K. Smith — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-03	Taipei	Hard (Indoor)	Ja. Delaney	1.31	74%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 SmithDelaneyPoints won49%51%Serve points won68%71%Return points won29%32%Games held12 of 1413 of 14Break points saved8 of 107 of 8Aces1212Double faults24
2026-10-27	Ningbo	Hard	Y. H. Hsu	1.65	58%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 5-7 6-7 SmithHsuPoints won51%49%Serve points won70%69%Return points won31%30%Games held16 of 1716 of 17Break points saved11 of 122 of 3Aces115Double faults22
2026-10-23	Guangzhou	Hard	T. Schoolkate	2.49	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 SmithSchoolkatePoints won48%52%Serve points won77%78%Return points won22%23%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved0 of 11 of 1Aces1118Double faults25
2026-10-22	Guangzhou	Hard	F. Sun	1.54	62%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-4 7-6 SmithSunPoints won52%48%Serve points won69%65%Return points won35%31%Games held13 of 1613 of 15Break points saved1 of 42 of 4Aces125Double faults43
2026-10-20	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Purcell	2.77	65%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 SmithPurcellPoints won55%45%Serve points won80%68%Return points won32%20%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 14 of 5Aces1911Double faults01
2026-10-16	Jinan	Hard	M. Landaluce	3.48	72%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 2-6 3-6 SmithLandalucePoints won45%55%Serve points won57%68%Return points won32%43%Games held9 of 1311 of 13Break points saved6 of 105 of 7Aces46Double faults34
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	V. Kopriva	2.72	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-3 SmithKoprivaPoints won53%47%Serve points won70%67%Return points won33%30%Games held13 of 1411 of 13Break points saved3 of 42 of 4Aces83Double faults31
2026-10-12	Jinan	Hard	S. Sakellaridis	2.36	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 6-3 SmithSakellaridisPoints won50%50%Serve points won74%71%Return points won29%26%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved4 of 56 of 7Aces67Double faults11
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	H. Moriya	1.38	70%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 6-7 3-6 SmithMoriyaPoints won51%49%Serve points won60%59%Return points won41%40%Games held11 of 1610 of 14Break points saved3 of 88 of 12Aces151Double faults26
2026-10-02	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	M. Krueger	1.79	54%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 SmithKruegerPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%78%Return points won22%32%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 61 of 1Aces142Double faults40

Ja. Delaney — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-03	Taipei	Hard (Indoor)	K. Smith		3.71	74%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 DelaneySmithPoints won51%49%Serve points won71%68%Return points won32%29%Games held13 of 1412 of 14Break points saved7 of 88 of 10Aces1212Double faults42
2026-11-01	Taipei	Hard (Indoor)	K. Wang		1.14	81%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-1 DelaneyWangPoints won65%35%Serve points won86%55%Return points won45%14%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved0 of 01 of 4Aces101Double faults13
2026-10-30	Ningbo	Hard	L. Broady		3.06	68%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-7 DelaneyBroadyPoints won45%55%Serve points won60%69%Return points won31%40%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved0 of 21 of 1Aces92Double faults22
2026-10-29	Ningbo	Hard	Y. Zhou		5.05	81%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-4 DelaneyZhouPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%68%Return points won32%29%Games held12 of 1412 of 14Break points saved3 of 50 of 2Aces107Double faults03
2026-10-27	Ningbo	Hard	A. Binda		1.82	53%	WON
Games in each set6-4 4-6 6-4 DelaneyBindaPoints won52%48%Serve points won75%68%Return points won32%25%Games held14 of 1513 of 15Break points saved4 of 55 of 7Aces1510Double faults02
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	C. Wong		11.17	91%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 DelaneyWongPoints won46%54%Serve points won61%73%Return points won27%39%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved4 of 60 of 1Aces1523Double faults41
2026-10-11	Jinan	Hard	A. Rai	RET	—	—	WON
Games in each set4-3 DelaneyRaiPoints won49%51%Serve points won68%68%Return points won32%32%Games held3 of 33 of 4Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces14Double faults00
2026-10-11	Jinan	Hard	M. Sharipov		5.13	81%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 DelaneySharipovPoints won40%60%Serve points won57%78%Return points won22%43%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved1 of 40 of 0Aces67Double faults01
2026-10-09	M25 Darwin 2	Hard	Z. Stevens		1.19	80%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 DelaneyStevensPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%74%Return points won26%31%Games held10 of 1212 of 12Break points saved5 of 62 of 2
2026-10-08	M25 Darwin 2	Hard	W. Van Der Merwe		1.05	89%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-0 DelaneyMerwePoints won60%40%Serve points won74%53%Return points won47%26%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved1 of 12 of 6

Common questions

Who is favourite, Keegan Smith or Jake Delaney?

Keegan Smith is favourite at 1.31, which is a 74% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Keegan Smith vs Jake Delaney?

Keegan Smith is 1.31 and Jake Delaney is 3.71, the prices we recorded for the Taipei match.

Who will win Keegan Smith vs Jake Delaney?

Our model makes it Keegan Smith to win at 1.31 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Hsu v Jasika Sakellaridis v Shimizu Imamura v M.McCabe v Erel McCabe v Samrej Harris v Watanuki