Luca Castelnuovo v Yusuke Kusuhara
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONL. Castelnuovo is 5-5 over the last ten and 27-18 on hard this season. Y. Kusuhara is 4-6 over the last ten and 7-12 on hard this season.
The pick is L. Castelnuovo to win 2-0. We make it a 48% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.10 or bigger. At 1.80 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| L. Castelnuovo | Y. Kusuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| 447 | Ranking | 646 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LWWLL | Last 5 | LWWLL |
| +1.0 | V the odds | -0.5 |
| 29-24 | Season | 8-13 |
| 27-18 | Hard 2026 | 7-12 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 5d | Days rest | 2d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Ningbo | L. CastelnuovovY. Kusuhara | 6-2 6-4 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
L. Castelnuovo — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Ningbo | Hard | F. Peliwo | 1.22 | 75% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 1-6 CastelnuovoPeliwoPoints won46%54%Serve points won51%61%Return points won39%49%Games held5 of 107 of 9Break points saved7 of 122 of 4Aces60Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-25 | Ningbo | Hard | Y. Kusuhara | 1.29 | 72% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 CastelnuovoKusuharaPoints won58%42%Serve points won78%58%Return points won42%22%Games held2 of 22 of 2Break points saved0 of 04 of 4Aces125Double faults04 | |||||||
| 2026-10-20 | Guangzhou | Hard | K. Sultanov | 2.00 | 54% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-7 CastelnuovoSultanovPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%82%Return points won18%34%Games held12 of 1212 of 12Break points saved15 of 151 of 1Aces269Double faults72 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Guangzhou | Hard | W. K. Leong M. | 1.83 | 50% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 CastelnuovoM.Points won58%42%Serve points won84%63%Return points won37%16%Games held9 of 97 of 10Break points saved1 of 11 of 4Aces87Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-18 | Guangzhou | Hard | E. Pleshivtsev | 1.51 | 63% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 CastelnuovoPleshivtsevPoints won55%45%Serve points won80%69%Return points won31%20%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved3 of 31 of 2Aces1513Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification | Hard | A. Santillan | 1.83 | 50% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-7 CastelnuovoSantillanPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%64%Return points won36%37%Games held13 of 1513 of 15Break points saved10 of 1216 of 18Aces58Double faults36 | |||||||
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | P. Kotov | — | — | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 5-7 5-7 CastelnuovoKotovPoints won49%51%Serve points won69%70%Return points won30%31%Games held15 of 1817 of 18Break points saved2 of 58 of 9Aces1414Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-09-16 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | E. Ymer | 2.59 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 CastelnuovoYmerPoints won46%54%Serve points won62%75%Return points won25%38%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved6 of 82 of 3Aces76Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-09-15 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | O. Jasika | RET | 2.30 | 59% | WON |
Games in each set6-7 6-2 1-0 CastelnuovoJasikaPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%60%Return points won40%33%Games held10 of 117 of 10Break points saved2 of 31 of 4Aces182Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-09-12 | Shanghai | Hard | I. Ivashka | 4.46 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 CastelnuovoIvashkaPoints won42%58%Serve points won54%70%Return points won30%46%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved3 of 62 of 3Aces42Double faults10 | |||||||
Y. Kusuhara — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Ningbo | Hard | L. Castelnuovo | 3.25 | 72% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 4-6 KusuharaCastelnuovoPoints won42%58%Serve points won58%78%Return points won22%42%Games held2 of 22 of 2Break points saved4 of 40 of 0Aces512Double faults40 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | M15 Tanagura | Hard | T. Kumasaka | 2.55 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 1-6 KusuharaKumasakaPoints won31%69%Serve points won36%73%Return points won27%64%Games held2 of 77 of 7Break points saved2 of 61 of 1 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | M15 Tanagura | Hard | M. Ochi | 1.77 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-1 KusuharaOchiPoints won60%40%Serve points won67%47%Return points won53%33%Games held7 of 84 of 9Break points saved2 of 31 of 6 | |||||||
| 2026-10-20 | M15 Tanagura | Hard | K. ABE | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set6-0 6-1 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | M25 Urayasu (Japan) | Hard | S. Fukuda | 2.75 | 65% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 3-6 KusuharaFukudaPoints won49%51%Serve points won68%72%Return points won28%32%Games held13 of 1514 of 15Break points saved2 of 46 of 7 | |||||||
| 2026-07-09 | M15 Tokyo 4 (Japan) | Hard | M. Dellavedova | 9.38 | 90% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-7 | |||||||
| 2026-07-08 | M15 Tokyo 4 (Japan) | Hard | R. Taguchi | 2.67 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-2 | |||||||
| 2026-07-01 | M15 Tokyo 3 (Japan) | Hard | R. Takahata | 1.43 | 67% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 4-6 | |||||||
| 2026-06-18 | M15 Tokyo 2 | Hard | Ja. Delaney | 4.03 | 76% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 | |||||||
| 2026-06-16 | M15 Tokyo 2 | Hard | S. Matsuoka | 2.72 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Luca Castelnuovo or Yusuke Kusuhara?
Luca Castelnuovo is favourite at 1.29, which is a 72% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara?
Luca Castelnuovo is 1.29 and Yusuke Kusuhara is 3.25, the prices we recorded for the Ningbo match.
What is the head-to-head between Luca Castelnuovo and Yusuke Kusuhara?
They have met 1 time and Luca Castelnuovo leads 1-0.
Who will win Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara?
Our model makes it Luca Castelnuovo to win 2-0 at 1.80 (Lean confidence).