Rafael Jodar v Daniil Medvedev
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
StrongWONR. Jodar is 7-3 over the last ten and 37-13 on hard this season. D. Medvedev is 10-0 over the last ten and 36-9 on hard this season. R. Jodar has played 4 matches in seven days. D. Medvedev took a medical timeout on 2026-10-12. D. Medvedev has played 4 matches in seven days.
The pick is R. Jodar to win. We make it a 44% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.27 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| R. Jodar | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ranking | 5 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 10-0 |
| WWWWL | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| +0.2 | V the odds | +2.2 |
| 55-17 | Season | 45-16 |
| 37-13 | Hard 2026 | 36-9 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 4 | Wins here | 4 |
| Clear | Fitness | MTODefending semi |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | R. JodarvD. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
R. Jodar — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | 1.74 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 2.65 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | C. Ruud | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 2 | 1.54 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | J. Lehecka | 1 - 2 | 2.46 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | T. A. Tirante | 1 - 2 | 1.42 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Vallejo | 2 - 0 | 1.23 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-09-25 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | C. Garin | 0 - 2 | 1.25 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | Y. Bu | 0 - 3 | 1.07 | 90% | LOST |
D. Medvedev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | 1.55 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 | 1.47 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | 1.45 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | 1.13 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | 1.14 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | 1.42 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Beijing | Hard | J-L. Struff | 2 - 0 | 1.17 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Hangzhou | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Hangzhou | Hard | R. Safiullin | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Rafael Jodar or Daniil Medvedev?
Daniil Medvedev is favourite at 1.55, which is a 63% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Rafael Jodar is 2.65 and Daniil Medvedev is 1.55, the prices we recorded for the Shanghai match.
What is the head-to-head between Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev?
They have met 1 time and Rafael Jodar leads 1-0.
Who will win Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model makes it Rafael Jodar to win at 2.65 (Strong confidence).