Taylor Fritz v Denis Shapovalov
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidLOSTD. Shapovalov is 7-3 over the last ten and 20-15 on hard this season. T. Fritz is 5-5 over the last ten and 27-15 on hard this season. T. Fritz took a medical timeout on 2026-10-24. T. Fritz has played 4 matches in seven days. D. Shapovalov retired from a match in the last month. The head to head is T. Fritz 4-4.
The pick is D. Shapovalov to win. We make it a 44% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.29 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| T. Fritz | D. Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ranking | 46 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WLWWW | Last 5 | WLWWL |
| -1.9 | V the odds | +2.0 |
| 38-20 | Season | 22-21 |
| 27-15 | Hard 2026 | 20-15 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| MTO | Fitness | retired |
| Head to head 4-4 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Basel | T. FritzvD. Shapovalov | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-03-24 | Miami | T. FritzvD. Shapovalov | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2025-02-07 | Dallas | T. FritzvD. Shapovalov | 6-2 3-6 6-7 |
| 2023-03-26 | ATP Miami | T. FritzvD. Shapovalov | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-03-02 | ATP Acapulco | T. FritzvD. Shapovalov | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-10-26 | Vienna | D. ShapovalovvT. Fritz | 6-1 4-6 6-3 |
| 2022-10-08 | Tokyo | T. FritzvD. Shapovalov | 6-3 6-7 6-3 |
| 2021-12-16 | Abu Dhabi | T. FritzvD. Shapovalov | 3-6 0-6 |
| 2021-09-30 | San Diego | D. ShapovalovvT. Fritz | 7-6 6-2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
T. Fritz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | A. Fils | RET | 1.97 | 51% | WON |
Games in each set6-2 2-0 FritzFilsPoints won67%33%Serve points won77%41%Return points won59%23%Games held4 of 51 of 5Break points saved1 of 24 of 8Aces70Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | D. Shapovalov | 1.53 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-3 FritzShapovalovPoints won56%44%Serve points won74%59%Return points won41%26%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved3 of 38 of 10Aces28Double faults25 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | R. Hijikata | 1.12 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 FritzHijikataPoints won55%45%Serve points won75%65%Return points won35%25%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 14 of 5Aces196Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-25 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | L. Musetti | 1.49 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 FritzMusettiPoints won43%57%Serve points won63%73%Return points won27%37%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved2 of 40 of 0Aces64Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | T. Paul | 1.55 | 63% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 7-5 FritzPaulPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%66%Return points won34%33%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved9 of 91 of 3Aces151Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | D. Altmaier | 1.24 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-2 FritzAltmaierPoints won57%43%Serve points won84%64%Return points won36%16%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces57Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | P. Herbert | 1.22 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 7-5 FritzHerbertPoints won58%42%Serve points won81%57%Return points won43%19%Games held10 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 08 of 11Aces55Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 1.65 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 5-7 3-6 FritzTsitsipasPoints won50%50%Serve points won71%67%Return points won33%29%Games held13 of 1514 of 15Break points saved6 of 88 of 9Aces2315Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 1.26 | 77% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-4 FritzArnaldiPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held10 of 118 of 11Break points saved4 of 54 of 7Aces94Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 1.31 | 74% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 4-6 3-6 FritzMunarPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%67%Return points won33%38%Games held12 of 1614 of 15Break points saved9 of 137 of 8Aces710Double faults13 | |||||||
D. Shapovalov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2.71 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ShapovalovFritzPoints won44%56%Serve points won59%74%Return points won26%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved8 of 103 of 3Aces82Double faults52 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | R. Bertola | 1.32 | 73% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 ShapovalovBertolaPoints won61%39%Serve points won80%51%Return points won49%20%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved1 of 25 of 9Aces62Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | RET | 6.20 | 85% | LOST |
Games in each set6-7 1-2 ShapovalovAlcarazPoints won45%55%Serve points won48%57%Return points won43%52%Games held4 of 75 of 8Break points saved4 of 71 of 4Aces10Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 1.72 | 57% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 3-6 6-4 ShapovalovTabiloPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%62%Return points won38%38%Games held12 of 1512 of 16Break points saved1 of 41 of 5Aces113Double faults50 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | S. Shimabukuro | 1.36 | 72% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-1 ShapovalovShimabukuroPoints won61%39%Serve points won72%50%Return points won50%28%Games held9 of 105 of 9Break points saved5 of 63 of 7Aces111Double faults26 | |||||||
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | H. Hurkacz | — | — | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 3-6 3-6 ShapovalovHurkaczPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%74%Return points won26%35%Games held12 of 1515 of 15Break points saved2 of 53 of 3Aces148Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Mannarino | 1.42 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-2 ShapovalovMannarinoPoints won52%48%Serve points won68%68%Return points won32%32%Games held14 of 1411 of 15Break points saved4 of 44 of 8Aces146Double faults91 | |||||||
| 2026-09-25 | Chengdu | Hard | V. Kopriva | 1.30 | 75% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 ShapovalovKoprivaPoints won61%39%Serve points won77%53%Return points won47%23%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved0 of 12 of 6Aces40Double faults50 | |||||||
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 1.75 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 ShapovalovGriekspoorPoints won49%51%Serve points won68%75%Return points won25%32%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved3 of 41 of 3Aces116Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 4.46 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 7-6 3-6 4-6 ShapovalovSheltonPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%67%Return points won33%37%Games held15 of 2118 of 22Break points saved5 of 114 of 8Aces814Double faults77 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Taylor Fritz or Denis Shapovalov?
Taylor Fritz is favourite at 1.53, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov?
Taylor Fritz is 1.53 and Denis Shapovalov is 2.71, the prices we recorded for the Basel match.
What is the head-to-head between Taylor Fritz and Denis Shapovalov?
They have met 9 times and Taylor Fritz leads 5-4.
Who will win Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model makes it Denis Shapovalov to win at 2.67 (Solid confidence).