Dante Pagani v Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanD. Pagani is 5-5 over the last ten and 3-10 on clay this season. M. A. Dellien Velasco is 2-8 over the last ten and 17-22 on clay this season. D. Pagani took a medical timeout on 2026-10-30. M. A. Dellien Velasco retired from a match in the last month.
The pick is D. Pagani to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 67% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.51 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Pagani | M. A. Dellien Velasco | |
|---|---|---|
| - | Ranking | 407 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 2-8 |
| LWWLW | Last 5 | LLWLL |
| +0.1 | V the odds | -0.8 |
| 8-14 | Season | 21-24 |
| 3-10 | Clay 2026 | 17-22 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 3d | Days rest | 21d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| MTO | Fitness | retired21d out |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Pagani — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | M15 João Pessoa (Brazil) | — | T. Martinez | 1.43 | 65% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 7-6 3-6 PaganiMartinezPoints won42%58%Serve points won51%68%Return points won32%49%Games held9 of 1512 of 14Break points saved6 of 124 of 6 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | M15 João Pessoa (Brazil) | — | J. P. Ficovich | 3.61 | 74% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 PaganiFicovichPoints won61%39%Serve points won71%47%Return points won53%29%Games held7 of 94 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 7 | |||||||
| 2026-10-28 | M15 João Pessoa (Brazil) | — | J. Cundom | 1.64 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-1 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | M15 Maceio (Brazil) | Clay | P. Sakamoto | 3.20 | 71% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 1-6 PaganiSakamotoPoints won32%68%Serve points won44%82%Return points won18%56%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved2 of 60 of 0 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | M15 Maceio (Brazil) | Clay | G. Branchetti | 1.74 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 5-7 7-5 PaganiBranchettiPoints won55%45%Serve points won60%50%Return points won50%40%Games held11 of 168 of 15Break points saved2 of 77 of 14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | M15 Maceio (Brazil) | Clay | P. H. Chabalgoity | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set6-0 6-2 PaganiChabalgoityPoints won58%42%Serve points won59%44%Return points won56%41%Games held6 of 71 of 7Break points saved2 of 36 of 11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-13 | M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil) | Clay | J. E. Schiessl | 4.15 | 77% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 7-5 4-6 PaganiSchiesslPoints won47%53%Serve points won64%69%Return points won31%36%Games held12 of 1514 of 16Break points saved3 of 60 of 2 | |||||||
| 2026-09-20 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | B. Fernandez | 3.03 | 69% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 4-6 PaganiFernandezPoints won48%52%Serve points won58%59%Return points won41%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved2 of 57 of 8Aces03Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-09-07 | US Open | Hard | K. Thompson | — | — | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 2-6 5-7 PaganiThompsonPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%67%Return points won33%47%Games held10 of 1712 of 16Break points saved9 of 163 of 7 | |||||||
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | N. Baena | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-3 PaganiBaenaPoints won54%46%Serve points won60%53%Return points won47%40%Games held8 of 105 of 10Break points saved4 of 66 of 10 | |||||||
M. A. Dellien Velasco — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Santa Cruz 2 | Clay | L. A. Miguel | RET | — | — | LOST |
Games in each set0-6 0-1 VelascoMiguelPoints won33%67%Serve points won22%62%Return points won38%78%Games held0 of 34 of 4Break points saved2 of 57 of 7Aces01Double faults61 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Antofagasta | Clay | T. Seyboth Wild | 5.75 | 84% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 2-6 VelascoWildPoints won34%66%Serve points won41%74%Return points won26%59%Games held2 of 77 of 8Break points saved3 of 80 of 1Aces03Double faults52 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Antofagasta | Clay | J. Estevez | 2.12 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-0 VelascoEstevezPoints won69%31%Serve points won71%34%Return points won66%29%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved2 of 21 of 6Aces00Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | J. Reis Da Silva | 3.81 | 75% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 5-7 VelascoSilvaPoints won44%56%Serve points won48%62%Return points won38%52%Games held4 of 107 of 9Break points saved5 of 119 of 11Aces23Double faults64 | |||||||
| 2026-09-23 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | J. P. Varillas | 4.30 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 5-7 4-6 VelascoVarillasPoints won48%52%Serve points won56%60%Return points won40%44%Games held10 of 1611 of 16Break points saved4 of 108 of 13Aces35Double faults50 | |||||||
| 2026-09-21 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | H. Casanova | 2.80 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 VelascoCasanovaPoints won55%45%Serve points won65%56%Return points won44%35%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved4 of 54 of 7Aces21Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-08-25 | Augsburg | Clay | B. Sanchez Martinez | 2.83 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 4-6 VelascoMartinezPoints won43%57%Serve points won49%63%Return points won37%51%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved4 of 83 of 4Aces22Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-08-18 | Sion (Switzerland) | Clay | R. Nijboer | 2.12 | 55% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 1-6 VelascoNijboerPoints won33%67%Serve points won42%78%Return points won22%58%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved3 of 80 of 0Aces11Double faults52 | |||||||
| 2026-08-10 | Todi | Clay | D. E. Galan | 3.60 | 74% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VelascoGalanPoints won45%55%Serve points won51%60%Return points won40%49%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved5 of 910 of 11Aces23Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-08-04 | Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) | Clay | A. Andreev | 2.98 | 68% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 6-7 VelascoAndreevPoints won48%52%Serve points won52%55%Return points won45%48%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved1 of 57 of 9Aces00Double faults63 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Dante Pagani or Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco?
Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco is favourite at 1.50, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Dante Pagani vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco?
Dante Pagani is 2.62 and Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco is 1.50, the prices we recorded for the Villa Maria match.
Who will win Dante Pagani vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco?
Our model makes it Dante Pagani to win a set (Lean confidence).