ChallengerClayVilla Maria2026-11-02 14:00

Thiago Cigarran v Hernan Casanova

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

T. Cigarran to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.66 or bigger · our chance 61% · market 25/75, us 31/69

T. Cigarran is 5-5 over the last ten and 32-28 on clay this season. H. Casanova is 3-7 over the last ten and 20-18 on clay this season.

The pick is T. Cigarran to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 61% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.66 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

T. Cigarran		H. Casanova
622	Ranking	394
5-5	Last 10	3-7
LWWLW	Last 5	LLWWL
+0.4	V the odds	-2.2
33-29	Season	22-19
32-28	Clay 2026	20-18
0	Last 7 days	0
20d	Days rest	14d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

T. Cigarran3.8125%

H. CasanovaFAV1.2875%

Market says75% Casanova

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

T. CigarranLWWLW

H. CasanovaLLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

T. Cigarran

H. Casanova

33-29

32-28

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

22-19

20-18

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Thiago Cigarran

Argentina

Hernan Casanova

Argentina

622

Argentina

33–28

—

33–28

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

394

Argentina

24–19

—

24–19

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

T. Cigarran — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-13	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	N. Kicker		4.14	77%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 CigarranKickerPoints won42%58%Serve points won53%67%Return points won33%47%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved0 of 47 of 8Aces01Double faults02
2026-10-12	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	L. J. Rodriguez		2.85	67%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 CigarranRodriguezPoints won53%47%Serve points won58%51%Return points won49%42%Games held7 of 105 of 10Break points saved3 of 68 of 13Aces04Double faults35
2026-10-11	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	B. Arias		1.11	85%	WON
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-4 CigarranAriasPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%55%Return points won45%35%Games held11 of 1310 of 14Break points saved2 of 45 of 9Aces31Double faults37
2026-10-06	Antofagasta	Clay	M. Tobon		4.02	76%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 4-6 1-6 CigarranTobonPoints won46%54%Serve points won55%61%Return points won39%45%Games held8 of 1311 of 14Break points saved2 of 76 of 9Aces43Double faults58
2026-10-05	Antofagasta	Clay	N. Kicker	RET	6.01	84%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-0 CigarranKickerPoints won59%41%Serve points won61%43%Return points won57%39%Games held5 of 62 of 6Break points saved0 of 12 of 6Aces30Double faults01
2026-10-04	Antofagasta	Clay	A. Matta		1.03	91%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 CigarranMattaPoints won65%35%Serve points won70%40%Return points won60%30%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved3 of 42 of 7Aces00Double faults18
2026-09-21	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	T. Martinez	RET	1.46	65%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 0-4 CigarranMartinezPoints won28%72%Serve points won29%73%Return points won27%71%Games held0 of 55 of 6Break points saved1 of 60 of 1Aces00Double faults02
2026-09-20	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	S. Pesino		1.14	82%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 CigarranPesinoPoints won54%46%Serve points won56%49%Return points won51%44%Games held7 of 115 of 11Break points saved5 of 93 of 9Aces30Double faults47
2026-09-06	Seville	Clay	T. Pereira		4.21	77%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-2 6-7 CigarranPereiraPoints won49%51%Serve points won62%66%Return points won34%38%Games held12 of 1511 of 14Break points saved5 of 81 of 4Aces02Double faults33
2026-09-04	M25 Casablanca (Morocco)	Clay	K. Bennani		4.39	78%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-7 CigarranBennaniPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%66%Return points won34%41%Games held6 of 910 of 11Break points saved6 of 95 of 6

H. Casanova — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Cali	Clay	G. Bueno		2.49	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 3-6 2-6 CasanovaBuenoPoints won47%53%Serve points won56%61%Return points won39%44%Games held8 of 1210 of 13Break points saved11 of 152 of 5Aces02Double faults06
2026-10-13	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	J. M. La Serna		—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 CasanovaSernaPoints won46%54%Serve points won67%68%Return points won32%33%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved1 of 35 of 5Aces02Double faults08
2026-10-12	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	W. Leite		1.31	72%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 CasanovaLeitePoints won56%44%Serve points won63%49%Return points won51%37%Games held7 of 94 of 9Break points saved1 of 311 of 16Aces14Double faults14
2026-10-11	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	A. Bobiere		1.01	93%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-0 CasanovaBobierePoints won75%25%Serve points won72%21%Return points won79%28%Games held6 of 60 of 6Break points saved1 of 11 of 7Aces00Double faults14
2026-10-05	Antofagasta	Clay	B. Munk Mesa		1.49	63%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-2 4-6 CasanovaMesaPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%62%Return points won38%42%Games held8 of 1210 of 13Break points saved4 of 88 of 11Aces03Double faults24
2026-10-04	Antofagasta	Clay	W. Leite		1.12	84%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-4 CasanovaLeitePoints won51%49%Serve points won54%53%Return points won47%46%Games held9 of 148 of 14Break points saved6 of 111 of 7Aces00Double faults03
2026-09-28	Curitiba	Clay	G. Heide		4.75	81%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 CasanovaHeidePoints won38%62%Serve points won48%71%Return points won29%52%Games held3 of 78 of 8Break points saved7 of 112 of 2Aces05Double faults21
2026-09-21	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	M. A. Dellien Velasco		1.36	67%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 CasanovaVelascoPoints won45%55%Serve points won56%65%Return points won35%44%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved4 of 74 of 5Aces12Double faults02
2026-08-11	M25 Muttenz	Clay	F. Thomas	RET	1.13	85%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 0-2 CasanovaThomasPoints won46%54%Serve points won40%48%Return points won52%60%Games held1 of 73 of 6Break points saved5 of 104 of 7
2026-08-04	Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria)	Clay	Y. T. Alexandrescou		—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 CasanovaAlexandrescouPoints won46%54%Serve points won48%56%Return points won44%52%Games held5 of 116 of 10Break points saved6 of 121 of 5Aces01Double faults13

Common questions

Who is favourite, Thiago Cigarran or Hernan Casanova?

Hernan Casanova is favourite at 1.28, which is a 75% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Thiago Cigarran vs Hernan Casanova?

Thiago Cigarran is 3.81 and Hernan Casanova is 1.28, the prices we recorded for the Villa Maria match.

Who will win Thiago Cigarran vs Hernan Casanova?

Our model makes it Thiago Cigarran to win a set (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

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