Flavio Cobolli v Matteo Berrettini
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanVOIDM. Berrettini is 5-5 over the last ten and 10-11 on hard this season. F. Cobolli is 5-5 over the last ten and 22-15 on hard this season. F. Cobolli took a medical timeout on 2026-10-27. F. Cobolli has played 4 matches in seven days. M. Berrettini took a medical timeout on 2026-10-20.
The pick is M. Berrettini to win. We make it a 54% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.87 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| F. Cobolli | M. Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ranking | 46 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| WLWWL | Last 5 | WLLWL |
| -0.9 | V the odds | -0.6 |
| 37-24 | Season | 23-20 |
| 22-15 | Hard 2026 | 10-11 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| MTO | Fitness | MTO |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
F. Cobolli — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | M. Berrettini | RET | 1.98 | 51% | LOST |
Games in each set2-5 CobolliBerrettiniPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%68%Return points won32%47%Games held2 of 34 of 4Break points saved4 of 50 of 0Aces03Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | G. Dimitrov | 1.47 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 CobolliDimitrovPoints won50%50%Serve points won67%66%Return points won34%33%Games held13 of 1412 of 14Break points saved6 of 76 of 8Aces910Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | L. Musetti | 1.78 | 55% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 2-6 5-7 CobolliMusettiPoints won47%53%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held12 of 1514 of 15Break points saved0 of 38 of 9Aces45Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | B. Nakashima | 2.45 | 60% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-4 CobolliNakashimaPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%59%Return points won41%31%Games held13 of 1512 of 15Break points saved3 of 57 of 10Aces313Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | S. Wawrinka | 1.35 | 72% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 CobolliWawrinkaPoints won59%41%Serve points won78%60%Return points won40%22%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved1 of 11 of 4Aces36Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Mannarino | 1.53 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 6-4 3-6 CobolliMannarinoPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%62%Return points won38%42%Games held8 of 1311 of 13Break points saved5 of 107 of 9Aces105Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | R. Safiullin | 1.91 | 51% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 2-6 CobolliSafiullinPoints won42%58%Serve points won53%69%Return points won31%47%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved8 of 115 of 5Aces47Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | L. Tien | 2.74 | 65% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-2 7-10 CobolliTienPoints won50%50%Serve points won54%55%Return points won45%46%Games held6 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 64 of 7Aces01Double faults54 | |||||||
| 2026-09-05 | US Open | Hard | A. Blockx | 1.89 | 52% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 3-6 0-6 3-6 CobolliBlockxPoints won40%60%Serve points won52%76%Return points won24%48%Games held10 of 1816 of 18Break points saved13 of 215 of 7Aces517Double faults54 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | T. Schoolkate | 1.19 | 82% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5 CobolliSchoolkatePoints won55%45%Serve points won74%63%Return points won37%26%Games held18 of 2016 of 20Break points saved0 of 22 of 6Aces104Double faults44 | |||||||
M. Berrettini — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 3.01 | 68% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 2-6 BerrettiniMinaurPoints won45%55%Serve points won61%70%Return points won30%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 36 of 6Aces45Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | F. Cobolli | RET | 1.93 | 51% | WON |
Games in each set5-2 BerrettiniCobolliPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held4 of 42 of 3Break points saved0 of 04 of 5Aces30Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | T. M. Etcheverry | 1.58 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 BerrettiniEtcheverryPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%70%Return points won30%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved6 of 61 of 3Aces126Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-20 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | K. Jacquet | 1.75 | 56% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniJacquetPoints won48%52%Serve points won71%70%Return points won30%29%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 15 of 5Aces1316Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Nakashima | 2.40 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniNakashimaPoints won49%51%Serve points won75%75%Return points won25%25%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved3 of 43 of 3Aces125Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Kovacevic | 1.52 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-4 BerrettiniKovacevicPoints won58%42%Serve points won84%59%Return points won41%16%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved0 of 08 of 11Aces233Double faults44 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Vallejo | 1.62 | 60% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 1-6 BerrettiniVallejoPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%77%Return points won23%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces45Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2.32 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set1-6 7-6 6-4 BerrettiniFokinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved4 of 71 of 3Aces164Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | M. Navone | 1.57 | 62% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 3-6 4-6 6-7 BerrettiniNavonePoints won48%52%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held17 of 2018 of 20Break points saved4 of 77 of 9Aces155Double faults64 | |||||||
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | S. Wawrinka | 1.27 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 7-6 6-0 BerrettiniWawrinkaPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%56%Return points won44%32%Games held13 of 1510 of 15Break points saved11 of 132 of 7Aces137Double faults36 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Flavio Cobolli or Matteo Berrettini?
Matteo Berrettini is favourite at 1.93, which is a 51% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini?
Flavio Cobolli is 1.98 and Matteo Berrettini is 1.93, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.
Who will win Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini?
Our model makes it Matteo Berrettini to win at 1.93 (Lean confidence).