ChallengerHard (Indoor)Taipei2026-11-01 09:00

Kasidit Samrej v Koki Matsuda

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

StrongLOST

K. Matsuda to win2.23

Worth backing at 1.99 or bigger · our chance 50% · market 57/43, us 50/50

K. Matsuda is 3-7 over the last ten and 33-21 on hard this season. K. Samrej is 4-6 over the last ten and 37-27 on hard this season. K. Samrej took a medical timeout on 2026-10-21. The head to head is K. Samrej 1-1.

The pick is K. Matsuda to win. We make it a 50% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.99 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

K. Samrej		K. Matsuda
397	Ranking	467
4-6	Last 10	3-7
LLWLW	Last 5	LLWLW
+0.4	V the odds	-0.3
39-28	Season	35-22
37-27	Hard 2026	33-21
1	Last 7 days	3
5d	Days rest	5d
0	Wins here	0
MTO	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 1-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

K. SamrejFAV1.6757%

K. Matsuda2.2543%

Market says57% Samrej

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

K. SamrejLWLLW

K. MatsudaLLLWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

K. Samrej2

K. Matsuda1

Head to head3 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-11-01	Taipei	K. SamrejvK. Matsuda	6-3 7-6
2025-08-17	M15 Singapore 2	K. SamrejvK. Matsuda	2-6 7-5 7-5
2025-07-06	M15 Maanshan 4	K. MatsudavK. Samrej	6-1 7-6

This season & this event

K. Samrej

K. Matsuda

40-29

38-28

Lost R32 to A. Santillan

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

35-23

33-22

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

Koki Matsuda

Japan

397

Thailand

37–25

35–24

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

467

Japan

33–16

31–15

2–1

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

K. Samrej — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Taipei	Hard (Indoor)	O. Jasika	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-7 SamrejJasikaPoints won47%53%Serve points won59%65%Return points won35%41%Games held9 of 129 of 12Break points saved2 of 55 of 8Aces74Double faults27
2026-11-01	Taipei	Hard (Indoor)	K. Matsuda	1.67	57%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 SamrejMatsudaPoints won53%47%Serve points won73%67%Return points won33%27%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 24 of 5Aces69Double faults26
2026-10-27	Seoul	Hard	R. Sakamoto	6.84	86%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 SamrejSakamotoPoints won39%61%Serve points won60%80%Return points won20%40%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 52 of 2Aces18Double faults31
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	C. Wong	8.53	89%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 SamrejWongPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%71%Return points won29%32%Games held12 of 1414 of 15Break points saved0 of 23 of 4Aces426Double faults42
2026-10-20	Guangzhou	Hard	R. Noguchi	2.84	66%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-1 7-6 SamrejNoguchiPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%67%Return points won33%34%Games held12 of 1411 of 13Break points saved2 of 43 of 5Aces810Double faults53
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	Y. Demin	1.78	53%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 SamrejDeminPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%75%Return points won25%42%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved7 of 105 of 5Aces57Double faults53
2026-10-18	Guangzhou	Hard	N. Honda	1.38	68%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 7-5 SamrejHondaPoints won53%47%Serve points won68%64%Return points won36%32%Games held14 of 1612 of 15Break points saved4 of 64 of 7Aces1612Double faults85
2026-10-07	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	F. Sun	2.67	64%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 SamrejSunPoints won45%55%Serve points won67%76%Return points won24%33%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved1 of 32 of 2Aces66Double faults42
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	E. Aguiard	2.00	52%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-3 SamrejAguiardPoints won66%34%Serve points won86%50%Return points won50%14%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved0 of 06 of 10Aces63Double faults26
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group II	- Preliminary	A. Shevchenko	3.12	70%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-2 6-3 SamrejShevchenkoPoints won53%47%Serve points won65%61%Return points won39%35%Games held10 of 129 of 13Break points saved11 of 132 of 5

K. Matsuda — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-01	Taipei	Hard (Indoor)	K. Samrej	2.25	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 MatsudaSamrejPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%73%Return points won27%33%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved4 of 52 of 2Aces96Double faults62
2026-10-27	Seoul	Hard	T. Atmane	9.19	90%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 1-6 2-6 MatsudaAtmanePoints won45%55%Serve points won52%61%Return points won39%48%Games held7 of 1211 of 13Break points saved7 of 128 of 10Aces37Double faults211
2026-10-26	Seoul	Hard	B. Zhukayev	2.31	58%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 MatsudaZhukayevPoints won48%52%Serve points won62%67%Return points won33%38%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved4 of 61 of 2Aces915Double faults34
2026-10-25	Seoul	Hard	G. J. Kim	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 MatsudaKimPoints won52%48%Serve points won70%63%Return points won37%30%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved1 of 23 of 5Aces14Double faults03
2026-10-20	Guangzhou	Hard	Y. Zhou	4.68	79%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 3-6 MatsudaZhouPoints won36%64%Serve points won48%80%Return points won20%52%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved2 of 62 of 2Aces37Double faults32
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	O. Jasika	4.49	79%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 MatsudaJasikaPoints won53%47%Serve points won79%66%Return points won34%21%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 05 of 6Aces100Double faults14
2026-10-18	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Hurrion	2.81	66%	WON
Games in each set6-3 4-6 7-6 MatsudaHurrionPoints won51%49%Serve points won64%60%Return points won40%36%Games held11 of 1511 of 16Break points saved4 of 85 of 10Aces128Double faults34
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	E. Zhu	3.22	70%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 MatsudaZhuPoints won43%57%Serve points won56%71%Return points won29%44%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved6 of 90 of 0Aces35Double faults51
2026-09-28	Jingshan	Hard	K. Saitoh	—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 MatsudaSaitohPoints won40%60%Serve points won55%75%Return points won25%45%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved2 of 50 of 0Aces13Double faults51
2026-09-15	Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) - Qualification	Hard	A. Weber	2.84	66%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 MatsudaWeberPoints won38%62%Serve points won48%73%Return points won27%52%Games held3 of 78 of 8Break points saved3 of 72 of 2Aces62Double faults30

Common questions

Who is favourite, Kasidit Samrej or Koki Matsuda?

Kasidit Samrej is favourite at 1.67, which is a 57% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Kasidit Samrej vs Koki Matsuda?

Kasidit Samrej is 1.67 and Koki Matsuda is 2.25, the prices we recorded for the Taipei match.

What is the head-to-head between Kasidit Samrej and Koki Matsuda?

They have met 3 times and Kasidit Samrej leads 2-1.

Who will win Kasidit Samrej vs Koki Matsuda?

Our model makes it Koki Matsuda to win at 2.23 (Strong confidence).

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