ATP Paris 2026 Preview: Draw, Title Odds, Injuries and Surface
The ATP Paris main draw begins on 1 November, with Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev leading the field. 61 players and 42 singles matches on our card, hard (indoor) court.
When is the ATP Paris?
The tournament starts on 1 November. Matches are listed to 4 November so far; the later rounds join the card as the draw is published.
Who are the title favourites for the ATP Paris?
Carlos Alcaraz is the favourite with a 31.9% chance of the title, ahead of Alexander Zverev on 15.8%. Worked out round by round from the published draw and our player ratings.
| Player | Title chance | Our fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz 2 | 31.9% | 3.1 |
| Alexander Zverev 1 | 15.8% | 6.3 |
| Daniil Medvedev 4 | 7.2% | 13.8 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 13 | 3.9% | 25.9 |
| Frances Tiafoe 7 | 3.8% | 26.4 |
| Tommy Paul 12 | 3.7% | 26.8 |
| Ben Shelton 3 | 3.7% | 27.1 |
| Rafael Jodar 9 | 3.6% | 27.5 |
| Novak Djokovic 10 | 3.5% | 28.5 |
| Alex De Minaur 8 | 3.5% | 28.8 |
What is the surface at the ATP Paris?
The tournament is played on hard (indoor) court.
Very slow court. How it has actually played, against the average for its level.
Servers held
−8.3% vs tour average 81.3%
Serve points won
−4.6% vs tour average 65.1%
Sets to a tiebreak
−2.3% vs tour average 20.2%
Aces
−0.05 vs tour average 0.49
Measured from 80 matches played at this event, against the average for its level over the same period. Not a surface label.
Who won the ATP Paris in 2025?
Jannik Sinner won it in 2025, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime 2-0.
Which players come to the ATP Paris in form?
Win-loss over the last five weeks, across every event, from our own results record.
| Player | Last 5 weeks | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | 15-2 | 88% |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-1 | 88% |
| Mattia Bellucci | 15-3 | 83% |
| Alex Molcan | 7-2 | 78% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 7-2 | 78% |
| Alex De Minaur | 10-3 | 77% |
Which players are carrying an injury into the tournament?
Retirements, walkovers and medical timeouts from our own tracking. A short price on a player who has not finished a match lately is the easiest way to lose money at this level.
| Player | Recent | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Cerundolo | RET, L 0-2, L 1-2 | retired once in the last 3 matches |
| Arthur Fils | RET, W 2-1, W 2-0 | retired once in the last 3 matches |
| Alexander Blockx | L 1-2, L 0-2, RET | retired once in the last 3 matches |
| Denis Shapovalov | RET, L 0-2, W 2-0 | retired once in the last 3 matches |
| Arthur Gea | RET, W 2-0, W 2-0 | retired once in the last 3 matches |
| Luca van Assche | W 2-0, L 0-2, L 1-2 | 1 medical timeout(s) in 14 days |
Which home players are in the ATP Paris?
10 players from France are in the singles draw. Arthur Fils, Arthur Gea, Arthur Rinderknech, Benjamin Bonzi, Kyrian Jacquet, Luca van Assche, Moise Kouame, Quentin Halys, Titouan Droguet, Ugo Humbert.
What are the first round matchups at the ATP Paris?
| Match | Time (UTC) | Prices | Market makes it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rinky Hijikata v Vit Kopriva | 11:00 | 1.42 / 3.00 | 68% R. Hijikata |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante v Mattia Bellucci | 11:00 | 2.73 / 1.49 | 65% M. Bellucci |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Miomir Kecmanovic | 11:00 | 1.81 / 2.06 | 53% J. M. Cerundolo |
| Sebastian Baez v Tomas Machac | 12:30 | 5.13 / 1.18 | 81% T. Machac |
| Benjamin Bonzi v Yannick Hanfmann | 12:30 | 1.72 / 2.18 | 56% B. Bonzi |
| Daniel Vallejo Adolfo v Lorenzo Sonego | 13:30 | 2.20 / 1.71 | 56% L. Sonego |
| Nuno Borges v Alex Molcan | 14:00 | 1.65 / 2.32 | 58% N. Borges |