ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-11-04 10:00
Alexander Zverev v Lorenzo Musetti
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidL. Musetti to win3.06
L. Musetti is 7-3 over the last ten and 23-10 on hard this season. A. Zverev is 7-3 over the last ten and 39-12 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Zverev 1-3.
The pick is L. Musetti to win. We make it a 38% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.61 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Zverev | L. Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ranking | 25 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LWWWL | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| -0.7 | V the odds | +0.7 |
| 65-17 | Season | 27-13 |
| 39-12 | Hard 2026 | 23-10 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 4d | Days rest | 2d |
| 0 | Wins here | 1 |
| Defending semi | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-3 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
A. ZverevFAV1.4168%
L. Musetti3.0632%
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
A. Zverev1
L. Musetti3
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Vienna | L. MusettivA. Zverev | 4-6 5-7 |
| 2025-05-14 | Rome | L. MusettivA. Zverev | 7-6 6-4 |
| 2024-10-25 | ATP Vienna | A. ZverevvL. Musetti | 6-2 6-7 4-6 |
| 2024-08-01 | Olympic Games | A. ZverevvL. Musetti | 5-7 5-7 |
This season & this event
A. Zverev
Defending semi
L. Musetti
65-17
39-12
Lost SF to J. Sinner
Champion
2026 record
2026 on hard
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
27-13
23-10
Lost R32 to L. Sonego
Lost R64 to J-L. Struff
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Alexander Zverev
Germany
Lorenzo Musetti
Italy
2
29
Germany
62–16
2
31–10
20–4
9–2
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
25
24
Italy
20–12
0
14–8
6–4
—
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Zverev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 1.40 | 70% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-1 6-7 ZverevMinaurPoints won50%50%Serve points won63%69%Return points won31%37%Games held14 of 1512 of 14Break points saved13 of 141 of 3Aces65Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Fery | 1.13 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set6-0 6-2 ZverevFeryPoints won67%33%Serve points won82%45%Return points won55%18%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 04 of 9Aces51Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | T. Griekspoor | 1.33 | 73% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-5 ZverevGriekspoorPoints won54%46%Serve points won83%68%Return points won32%17%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces113Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | M. Landaluce | 1.08 | 89% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 3-6 7-6 ZverevLandalucePoints won51%49%Serve points won73%66%Return points won34%27%Games held14 of 1615 of 17Break points saved2 of 45 of 7Aces86Double faults44 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1.27 | 77% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-5 4-6 3-6 ZverevFokinaPoints won46%54%Serve points won66%77%Return points won23%34%Games held13 of 1515 of 16Break points saved4 of 62 of 3Aces185Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | A. De Minaur | 1.53 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 ZverevMinaurPoints won56%44%Serve points won76%67%Return points won33%24%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved5 of 50 of 2Aces106Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Bublik | 1.37 | 71% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 4-6 7-6 ZverevBublikPoints won53%47%Serve points won75%66%Return points won34%25%Games held15 of 1716 of 17Break points saved1 of 35 of 6Aces1520Double faults18 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | Q. Halys | 1.15 | 84% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 ZverevHalysPoints won53%47%Serve points won74%69%Return points won31%26%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved0 of 07 of 9Aces1913Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Wu | 1.11 | 87% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 ZverevWuPoints won55%45%Serve points won78%66%Return points won34%22%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 13 of 5Aces56Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | N. Djokovic | 1.38 | 71% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 4-6 4-6 ZverevDjokovicPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%73%Return points won27%32%Games held13 of 1514 of 15Break points saved3 of 53 of 4Aces194Double faults03 | |||||||
L. Musetti — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | H. Hurkacz | 1.93 | 50% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 7-6 MusettiHurkaczPoints won50%50%Serve points won78%82%Return points won18%22%Games held12 of 1212 of 12Break points saved1 of 10 of 0Aces59Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Fery | 1.34 | 73% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 7-5 4-6 MusettiFeryPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%64%Return points won36%35%Games held13 of 1614 of 16Break points saved5 of 87 of 9Aces40Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | F. Tiafoe | 2.21 | 56% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 7-5 MusettiTiafoePoints won55%45%Serve points won77%63%Return points won37%23%Games held12 of 1211 of 12Break points saved0 of 05 of 6Aces54Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-25 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2.84 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MusettiFritzPoints won57%43%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces46Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | F. Cobolli | 2.16 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 6-2 7-5 MusettiCobolliPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved8 of 90 of 3Aces54Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | L. van Assche | 1.46 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-7 6-4 MusettiAsschePoints won51%49%Serve points won69%66%Return points won34%31%Games held16 of 1715 of 17Break points saved3 of 46 of 8Aces67Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | M. Kouame | 1.27 | 77% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MusettiKouamePoints won55%45%Serve points won73%58%Return points won42%27%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 19 of 12Aces26Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | M. Arnaldi | 1.49 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-4 MusettiArnaldiPoints won57%43%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved6 of 61 of 5Aces50Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Zhou | 1.23 | 79% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-3 6-7 MusettiZhouPoints won52%48%Serve points won76%69%Return points won31%24%Games held17 of 1715 of 16Break points saved2 of 24 of 5Aces514Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Sweeny | 1.04 | 93% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 1-6 2-6 2-6 MusettiSweenyPoints won44%56%Serve points won52%65%Return points won35%48%Games held8 of 1613 of 16Break points saved9 of 177 of 10Aces65Double faults72 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alexander Zverev or Lorenzo Musetti?
Alexander Zverev is favourite at 1.41, which is a 68% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Alexander Zverev is 1.41 and Lorenzo Musetti is 3.06, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti?
They have met 4 times and Lorenzo Musetti leads 3-1.
Who will win Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model makes it Lorenzo Musetti to win at 3.06 (Solid confidence).