Ignacio Buse v Daniil Medvedev
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanD. Medvedev is 8-2 over the last ten and 43-11 on hard this season. I. Buse is 5-5 over the last ten and 14-12 on hard this season.
The pick is D. Medvedev to win. We make it a 84% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.19 or bigger. At 1.15 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| I. Buse | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Ranking | 5 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WLLLL | Last 5 | LWWWW |
| -0.2 | V the odds | +0.8 |
| 32-24 | Season | 52-18 |
| 14-12 | Hard 2026 | 43-11 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 2d | Days rest | 4d |
| 1 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
I. Buse — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | Z. Bergs | 3.49 | 72% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 BuseBergsPoints won56%44%Serve points won67%56%Return points won44%33%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved4 of 56 of 10Aces52Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Mannarino | 2.50 | 61% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-0 5-7 4-6 BuseMannarinoPoints won52%48%Serve points won61%57%Return points won43%39%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved2 of 65 of 10Aces92Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 2.63 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set0-6 3-6 BuseBergsPoints won39%61%Serve points won46%70%Return points won30%54%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved4 of 92 of 2Aces33Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | Q. Halys | 2.25 | 57% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 6-7 BuseHalysPoints won43%57%Serve points won57%68%Return points won32%43%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved3 of 61 of 2Aces39Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | D. Vallejo | 1.40 | 69% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-5 5-7 6-7 BuseVallejoPoints won48%52%Serve points won57%64%Return points won36%43%Games held13 of 1813 of 18Break points saved14 of 199 of 14Aces65Double faults24 | |||||||
| 2026-09-18 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | H. J. Escurra Isnardi | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 4-6 7-5 BuseIsnardiPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%62%Return points won38%33%Games held13 of 1713 of 17Break points saved5 of 911 of 15Aces93Double faults23 | |||||||
| 2026-09-03 | US Open | Hard | B. Bonzi | 1.90 | 51% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 6-7 0-6 BuseBonziPoints won41%59%Serve points won55%73%Return points won27%45%Games held8 of 1313 of 13Break points saved2 of 74 of 4Aces68Double faults71 | |||||||
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | M. Giron | 1.61 | 60% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-3 6-7 6-1 BuseGironPoints won54%46%Serve points won63%55%Return points won45%37%Games held17 of 2214 of 24Break points saved5 of 1013 of 23Aces105Double faults56 | |||||||
| 2026-08-29 | Winston-Salem | Hard | A. Fery | 2.13 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-2 BuseFeryPoints won61%39%Serve points won69%49%Return points won51%31%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved0 of 13 of 7Aces20Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-08-28 | Winston-Salem | Hard | B. Bonzi | 2.18 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 4-6 6-1 BuseBonziPoints won58%42%Serve points won71%51%Return points won49%29%Games held10 of 127 of 13Break points saved4 of 67 of 13Aces74Double faults04 | |||||||
D. Medvedev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Alcaraz | 3.10 | 69% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-7 MedvedevAlcarazPoints won46%54%Serve points won57%65%Return points won35%43%Games held8 of 119 of 11Break points saved1 of 42 of 4Aces67Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Mannarino | 1.25 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 MedvedevMannarinoPoints won57%43%Serve points won69%53%Return points won47%31%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved0 of 07 of 11Aces52Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Norrie | 1.22 | 80% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 6-3 7-6 MedvedevNorriePoints won52%48%Serve points won65%61%Return points won39%35%Games held13 of 1612 of 15Break points saved8 of 113 of 6Aces121Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | D. Merida Aguilar | 1.25 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-1 MedvedevAguilarPoints won58%42%Serve points won65%52%Return points won48%35%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved4 of 61 of 5Aces50Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-25 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | N. Basilashvili | 1.24 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-3 MedvedevBasilashviliPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%64%Return points won36%24%Games held14 of 1410 of 14Break points saved2 of 26 of 10Aces223Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | RET | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
Games in each set6-3 MedvedevBublikPoints won61%39%Serve points won87%67%Return points won33%13%Games held5 of 53 of 4Break points saved0 of 01 of 2Aces93Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Atmane | 1.16 | 84% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MedvedevAtmanePoints won58%42%Serve points won82%60%Return points won40%18%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 06 of 8Aces54Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | S. Shimabukuro | 1.06 | 91% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-1 MedvedevShimabukuroPoints won66%34%Serve points won79%46%Return points won54%21%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved3 of 35 of 10Aces71Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Jodar | 1.55 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MedvedevJodarPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%60%Return points won40%46%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved3 of 74 of 6Aces36Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Paul | 1.47 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 1-6 6-3 MedvedevPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won60%57%Return points won43%40%Games held9 of 129 of 13Break points saved11 of 148 of 12Aces167Double faults81 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Ignacio Buse or Daniil Medvedev?
Daniil Medvedev is favourite at 1.15, which is a 84% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev?
Ignacio Buse is 5.93 and Daniil Medvedev is 1.15, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
Who will win Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model makes it Daniil Medvedev to win at 1.15 (Lean confidence).